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 Last week we spoke about those who would tell us something in order to manipulate us. As it turns out, the newly elected Spanish government is ratting out the old Spanish government and the lies they were telling all of us about their economy. We thought they were in a tough position, but according to the new information, their woes are nearly twice as bad as we thought. Thanks John Mauldin for the heads up.Spain was getting charged over 7% when it borrowed. This amount was considered unpayable by many. Then the European Central Bank printed over a Trillion Euros which in part was given to Spanish banks which in turn lent the money to Spain. This brought their borrowing costs down to a respectable level. Everyone thought this massive money printing process would allow the Euro Zone a year to get things together. Unfortunately with the new info coming out of Spain, the markets have begun increasing the interest rates already. This last week saw rates hit 6% and there is fear it will continue increasing. Spain's economy is said to be too large to save. Greece was simply a small domino that could begin tipping others. Spain is the domino that could break the entire system. It is certainly affecting our markets in the U.S. again. This last week we've had some pretty good news entering earnings season. Each time we get good news though, we get another piece of bad news out of Europe to dampen it. The markets are trying to digest the two. The briefing this week shows the difference between buying retail vs wholesale. Our goal is to sell positions at retail (near resistance levels) and buy our next positions wholesale (near support areas). We know we will never be right all the time and we attempt to mitigate the risk of being wrong intially by taking smaller initial positions. Over time, this system keeps losses smaller without capping gains. It is a simple approach, but not always easy. Please take a look at the briefing for the full scoop.
Have a great day!!
John Norquay CEO PivotPoint Advisors |
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Monday, April 16, 2012
The Rain In Spain . . .
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Introducing. . .
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I can't begin to tell you how proud of her that I am. Cherie has put a LOT of effort into her songs and each of them carries a powerful story or message. This site will give you a good feel for her music and ministry. I hope you will be blessed. Please let me know what you think and feel free to pass it on. We are working on our briefings this week and will notify you when they are complete. Have a great day!! John Norquay CEO PivotPoint Advisors |
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Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Humble Opinion vs Manipulation
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Humble opinion vs. Manipulation
In the news we have read about the continual improvement in the jobs situation. We have discussed the importance of jobs data during election years. If it is deteriorating, the incumbant never gets elected. Thats it. Simple and straight forward. Everything in 2012 that comes out of the current administration will be jobs based and it may look better than it actually is. The good news for us is that every now and again reality seeps in and everyone (the market) has to pay attention. Bernanke mentioned in a speech that if the people believe we are in a recession, even though we currently aren't, we will soon be, simply due to the change in spending habits. How do you fight this if you are the chairman of the Fed? Tell the people everything is ok, then print more money for them to spend. Unfortunately the new money never seems to get down to us at the bottom of the food chain until AFTER gas is over $4 per gallon and food prices have sky rocketed. Europe has copied this approach and is paying dearly for it as we speak. Greece has already had over 90 ammendments to the austerity measures introduced. The alcoholic simply wants another drink. Spain, even though the European Fed quadrupled their money supply is being charged increasingly more to borrow money by the bond markets. Their inability to pay back their loans will be a continuing topic for 2012. The French stock index (CAC 40) is down over 20% from its high over the last year. The German Dax is down over 12%. Could the U.S. be next? Earnings season starts with Alcoa at the close of the market today. According to an article in the Wall Street Journal today, Companies within the S&P 500 are expected to have the worst earnings since the financial crisis. Does this corroborate the picture of improving jobs data? I didn't think so either. Look what else is going on around the world right now. North Korea is breaking all kinds of treaties by launching a long range rocket that others feel will eventually carry nuclear war heads. Iran is certainly not willing to back down on their nuclear ambitions and have basically told Israel and the U.S. to "bring it on". Syria doesn't care about the U.N. deadlines and is inviting world involvement. The market today (Tuesday) seems to be feeling the pain of an ailing world and questioning the rhetoric of it's leaders. It is down nearly 4% since we exited our last positions and so far today hasn't shown signs of stopping. This will create excellent wholesale opportunities for our portfolios as this pullback unfolds. Please visit the briefing room and get a detailed analysis of our plans and thoughts for the current market conditions.
Have a great day!!
John Norquay CEO PivotPoint Advisors |
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Monday, April 2, 2012
A Reassuring Lie
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 Knowing who you can trust in this world is imperative, no matter what industry you are thinking about. The lies and deception department is often called the "Marketing" department or Public Relations department. Goldman Sachs has been in the news quite often lately. One of their executives said many at the firm call their clients "Muppets". Other high ranking executives have recently been convicted of insider trading. One of Goldman's Ex-CEO's just took MF Global into bankruptcy while stealing $1.6 BILLION dollars of client money. This week, it becomes apparent that the Goldman Sachs machine is telling their clients one thing, so that THEY can make money doing something different. The problem comes from a recent article stating a case why the muppets should be buying stocks when, at the same time, the company forcasts the market to lose over 10% in 2012. Someone with rose colored glasses might explain this dilemma by saying the company simply wants to have articles on both sides, thus creating the ability in 2013 to pull an archive file from 2012 and say "We told you so" by pulling out the article that was correct. A more pessimistic view would say they are trying to get the general population to do one thing so it is easier for their wealthier clients to make money doing something different. Last year I wrote a white paper explaining how JP Morgan Chase is doing this same thing. I've been in this industry since 1992 and have worked with one of the largest firms in the industry. Unfortunately my experience supports these pessimistic views. All Spain. . . all the time. The above saying was the mantra in John Mauldin's newsletter this week. I wrote weekly about the dilemma in Greece for the last year. Now they have their bailout and are speaking about bailout number three already. Spain is the next in line, but has an economy more than triple the size of Greece. Long time readers will remember the articles referring to the Euro Zone Countries acting like children. When Greece got a bailout, then everyone else would begin stepping up saying "Where is Mine?" Spain appears to be one of the first children on the door step. I won't go into Spain's bleak conditions this week, to avoid extra length. If I were you, I would expect a few comments over the coming months though! The Euro Zone is printing money faster than Bernanke can say "Weimar Republic!". It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Have a great day!! John Norquay CEO PivotPoint Advisors |
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