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 Replace the "Grasshopper" with yourself and the "Master" with the standard buy and hold - asset allocate and diversify - advisor. Obviously the old rickety bridge is the market at unsustainable highs.
A few weeks ago I shared the view of cyclic analysis expert David Hickson (ST Outlook - 8 September 2012). He is of the opinion market cycles will form short term highs leading to a drop into a long term trough. He gave a detailed explanation and supported his premise with excellent data.
Today I will share another robust leading indicator of future market activity - the PMI. PMI measures the amount of manufacturing going on in the world. If people of the world aren't buying as much (reflecting a poor economy) then world manufacturing decreases. Normally, since stock markets are a barometer of the economy, then manufacturing and stock markets tend to move together in the same direction. If you squint while looking at the chart below this is very apparent. But now look closer at the right side of the chart and you will see that as the stock market has climbed since June this year, manufacturing has been decreasing.  What does this tell us? These indexes WILL travel together soon. Will the market turn down to follow declining manufacturing or will manufacturing turn up and follow the market higher? Whichever you choose to believe, WE believe the market is a rickety bridge over a deep chasm. As I write this, the market is pulling back from our last selling point for Moderately Aggressive accounts. We will wait for major bridge repair to be done before we risk any moderate account assets. If we are right and the market begins to correct, we may put a few Moderately Aggressive toes in along the way to take advantage of opportunities that occur.
Have a great day!!
John Norquay CEO PivotPoint Advisors |
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Copyright © 2012 PivotPoint Advisors All rights reserved.
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Monday, October 8, 2012
A Rickety Bridge
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Sold Three Toe Position This Morning
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The first chart, the hourly, shows some of the difficulty experienced while holding this position. We purchased September 27th on the bar hilited by the green circle. We just sold this morning near the current peak within the red circle. Between the two points you can see the bars broke through the lower green support line. Red flags were raised but when everything was put on the scale, continuing to hold the position ruled out and it turned out to be the correct one. 
Hourly Chart depicting buy and sell areas
The next chart is the daily. This gives us a more macro view. You can see the two large days on the left that caused an over-bought market become even MORE over-bought. The long over due pullback occured allowing our position. 
Daily Chart
Waiting for longer term pull back to create an opportunity for the moderate portfolios. We have exciting news coming up that you all will love. I can't wait to put the finishing touches on and share it.
Have a great day!!
John Norquay CEO PivotPoint Advisors |
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Copyright © 2012 PivotPoint Advisors All rights reserved.
You are receiving this email because you opted in at our website. PivotPoint Advisors W4073 Exeter Crossing Road Monticello, WI 53570 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
