Monday, November 7, 2011

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The Only Thing That's Guaranteed? . . . Change.




November 7, 2011


The briefing was updated yesterday and can be found in The Briefing Room.

When we are fed up with the status quo, we elect public officials who promise change.  Does the change they are promising ever get here?  I'll leave that up to you to decide.  We at PivotPoint, however, are giving a few of you some un-promised change.  Fortunately, it is change that is designed to help.

Up until now, we have managed accounts utilizing 4 different risk profiles, Aggressive, Moderately Aggressive, Moderate and Moderately Conservative (A, MA, M and MC).  To date, since we haven't gone through multiple long term cycles, the A's and MA's return and volatility are very similar as are the M and MC's.  Also, a vast majority of those who have completed Risk Profiles have been rendered into the MA or M models.  In order to save administrative time and expense, we are going to combine the A's into the MA's and the MC's into the M's.  If you are an A or an MC and have any questions regarding this, please let me know and  I will work through this with you.  We thank you in advance for understanding our desire for efficiency in making this change.


The Economy

Many of you may wonder why I have spent so much time writing about Europe recently.  The reason is because it is effecting the volatility and direction of our markets.  In fact as I was writing this update last Monday, the U.S. was experiencing its first casualty due to the European financial debacle.  MF Global isn't a household name like Bank of America, but it is very well known to investors.  Its bankruptcy is the fifth largest from a public  financial firm in the history of the U.S. after the likes of Lehman and Countrywide.

MF Global was run by the ex chief of Goldman Sachs who then became A Senator for New Jersey and then New Jersey's Governator.  He was an insider to Wall Street, bet on European Countries as investments, and took the MF Global ship down.  This on the heels of Dexia, the largest lender in the world to municipalities, failed.  Are these two dominos, like Bear Stearns and Lehman in 2008?  Only time will tell.

This morning Italy is in the news.  It seems the cost of their debt is skyrocketing beyond what they can pay.  They weren't expected to be a problem so quickly.  For goodness sakes, Greece isn't even solved yet.  Remember I wrote a few weeks back that once they begin to make deals EVERYONE will want a deal?  There isn't much on the financial docket this week due to earnings season winding down, so the news will be paying plenty of attention to the details of the Euro Big Deal.

Anyone with a human side to them will want to read Don's last blog posts.  When a huge company like MF Global goes down, it wreaks havoc on millions of families.  Most news stories only cover  the effect it has on Wall Street.  Few readers hear about how a reckless few leaders can cause devastation to literally millions.  Some of those can be your best friends.

In this weeks briefing, Don speaks about our last investment sequence and his thoughts on what may be the next.  You will enjoy the new layout and appreciate knowing his thoughts.

I Delivered Pizza in College, but NOT NOW!
Have a great day!!

John Norquay
CEO PivotPoint Advisors





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