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"It must be an election year"
The economy is extremely important to the current President and his party when it comes to re-election. Never has a President or his party won the election when the election year was recessionary. Do you think the President and his election staff know this fact? Of course they do! An article by the washington times addressed this issue. This article refers to the trend of the unemployment rate as a significant factor to Presidential election results. It doesn't seem to matter if unemployment is high or low, but is the current administration making them better or worse? Think back to my article last week regarding authenticity of the decline in employment numbers. They don't match up with the reality of withholding taxes from paychecks. You can see why the current administration is motivated to get these historically high numbers on a downward trend! I was doing some seminars in 2008 and part of the seminar addressed historic recessions and their effect on elections. My comment at the time was that either Hillary or Obama would be the next President. Why? Because even though the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) hadn't told us we were in a recession yet, we really did know it. In fact we weren't officially informed that the recession began until (how ironically) November of 2008. In case you were wondering, the official begin date was December of 2007. Yes, we were in a recession the entire election year, but weren't told about it until just before the election. I'm sure they wouldn't have told us then if they didn't have to. Unfortunately for the republican party, it was a deep recession thus causing a loss by landslide. This tells us how important it is to pick the right republican candidate, since the economy doesn't feel much better now than it did in 2008. Some say it is worse, but we will see as it unfolds. My favorite mutual fund star, Bill Gross, let the world know his preferences on CNBC. Bill heads PIMCO, the largest bond company in the world. I like Bill because he is always outside the box. I'm pretty sure President Obama hates his guts because he has actually shorted US bonds. Bill knows our economy is in trouble and believes Ron Paul is the only guy who will put things on a proper track. You can see the video here. Please visit the briefing room for our take on the current market conditions and our portfolio plans regarding them. Have a great day!! John Norquay CEO PivotPoint Advisors |
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Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Presidential Races and Recessions
Moderately Aggressive Model
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