Monday, October 24, 2011

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We've Turned The Corner




October 24, 2011


The briefing was updated yesterday and can be found in The Briefing Room.

Ever wonder if you're getting the truth?
We began taking positions again last week which means we must have turned the corner?  Hopefully the market isn't trying to pull another fast one and we have to exit quickly once again.  The market wouldn't lie, right?

I wrote about the Weimar republic last week.  It has been interesting to watch Sarkozy and Merkel duke it out this last week with their own versions of the Euro bailout agreement (or lack thereof).  Sarkozy, representing the French, wants to turn the EU bailout fund into a bank that can accept funds from the EU Fed.  The EU Fed can simply "expand its balance sheet" and extend the bailout fund lots of  money.  Unfortunately when you see the term "expand the balance sheet" in terms of a Federal Reserve Bank, it means PRINTING MONEY. 

Germany knows that printing money isn't the answer, and they have the experience to prove it!  Instead they prefer to use the bailout fund as an insurance company, guaranteeing the loans (bonds) of the failing countries.  This has its own problems because if you are a stable country and don't need the EU insurance, you might lose investment dollars for your bonds because investors are buying higher yielding ones WITH the EU insurance. 

Ultimately, they are trying to turn 400 billion euros into at least 2 trillion to stave off the first round of failures which, reportedly, could occur any day now. 

I still have a hard time understanding how more leverage and debt is the solution to too much leverage and debt.  Maybe the U.S. administration could help them understand you can't increase debt to cure your debt problems?  I'm probably the only who thinks I'm funny.

If Europe gets their problems figured out quickly enough, then maybe this 20% pullback will be behind us and we can ride off into the sunset and new market highs. 

Turn the corner with us by checking out the briefing room.

 Have a great day!!

John Norquay
CEO PivotPoint Advisors





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