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The bug that had gotten into Don's system on his vacation to Aruba had gotten into his joints as of the last briefing but now is in his muscles as well. This has caused great and continual pain for him, thus making the briefing difficult at best. I again ask for those of you who pray to keep him in your prayers. The briefing was updated Monday and can be found in The Briefing Room.
Ignoring that, you'll notice the rest of it is in pretty good shape!
I'm sure all of you have heard on the news or read about the Euro Zone fiasco. So many newsies want to spin the situation as a current buying opportunity. This may very well be true for hang gliders, bungee jumpers and asset allocation devotees, but for the rest of us . . . well . . . better safe than sorry. I worked at a large wire house two recessions ago. I will never forget all the articles that began coming out regarding the "discounts" that were occuring in the market. Every new low brought out a new reason why this was the bottom and the market hadn't been on sale this cheap for "X" amount of years for "X" reason(s). You could term it "All buys, All the time!" Never did they give you a reason to head for the sidelines "cause this thing is volatile right now and may give you sea sickness."
I wrote many times how the Euro Zone could act like a game of dominos. Nearly every Country except Germany was in financial trouble and as soon as they began bailing out the first Country, we knew the rest would begin lining up. John Mauldin wrote over a year ago that the situation was so bad the bailouts wouldn't even work stating Greece would probably leave the union even if it were bailed out. Now we see not only a Greek exit as a reality but Spain and others considering that same fate. This will not bode well for our markets. Someone asked me why the U.S. will be effected negatively if the Euro goes under. My quick response was "haven't you heard of Globalisation?" The truth of the matter is the U.S. and Europe account for about HALF of the entire world's economy. One or the other account for the largest part of trade or investments for nearly every Country in the world. When the U.S. or the Euro Zone gets a cold, the rest of the world gets the flu. Its as simple as that. This is why feel the need to be very cautious right now with our portfolios. We tried twice recently to make a few bucks and the market both times proved it hadn't reached a bottom yet. We do realize that the market will reach a bottom at some point. We want to have all our portfolio values intact when we reach that point. We would much rather give up some upside for not having to take the downside. Nothing is perfect, but our objective to not lose money is clear. Please check out the briefing. You may also want to check out the results of our Moderately Aggressive Model. You may also goto www.JohnNorquay.blogspot.com to review any of the briefings I have written.
Have a great day!!
John Norquay CEO PivotPoint Advisors |
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Wednesday, June 13, 2012
You Don't Have To Go Down With The Ship
Moderately Aggressive Model
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